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    Some transformation of Russia's economic structure effect, the Sino Russian economic and trade cooperation will welcome the situation

    2017-08-25

    In an analysis of the economic situation in the first half of the year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) economic report used the phrase "to confirm that the Russian economy is recovering.". At the same time, the Russian Ministry of economic development expects Russia's economy will grow by 2% this year, the world bank believes it will grow by 1.5%. From the main economic indicators, the Russian economy continues to steady, and further into the low growth channel, has become a consensus. However, what needs to be paid more attention than the economic data is the challenges in the economic transformation of Russia in the past two years, as well as the impact on the future economic and trade cooperation between China and russia.

    According to the Russian Federal Bureau of statistics data, in 2016, Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) was 86 trillion and 44 billion rubles (about 1 trillion and 419 billion U.S. dollars), down 0.2%, but significantly better than the 2.8% decline in 2015. Since July last year, the Russian GDP continued to achieve year-on-year growth, reaching 1.6% in the first half of this year.

    High inflation is a chronic disease in Russia's economic development, and also a key factor hindering the development of investment. However, the decline from 12.9% in 2015 and 5.4% in 2016 has now dropped to 4.1%. In the people's livelihood, the employment and labor force participation rate is approaching the highest level in history, and the unemployment rate is close to the lowest historical value. Russian Federal Bureau of statistics data show that: in the first half of this year, the actual disposable income of Russian residents stopped falling.

    The Russian economic crisis, which began in 2014, has broken off Russia's financing channels in the international market, mainly from the external economic sanctions imposed by the United states. The international market, oil prices fell sharply to around $30 a barrel, but also makes Russia, mainly relying on crude oil and natural gas exports, into the quagmire of the economy.

    According to Kudrin, former Russian finance minister, in 1999 - 2008, the correlation coefficient between Russian GDP growth and international oil prices was 0.862009 - 2014, with a coefficient of 0.98. Commodity prices, especially oil prices, Russia's economic outlook has become the "gate of life".

    Russian President Putin has said that due to the long-term sanctions on Russia, Russia lost 50 billion - 52 billion dollars, cause the price of Russian traditional products fell, including oil, natural gas, iron and steel, chemical etc.. However, Putin also stressed that the Western sanctions strengthen Russia's determination to carry out economic restructuring.

    Going out of recession does not mean getting out of the economic predicament. In June 15th, when the "Putin hotline" program was launched in 2017, the first question the public raised was about the Russian economic crisis. Putin said that the Russian economy has gone out of recession, into the growth period. However, it is disturbing that the number of people living below the poverty line in Russia is still increasing."

    According to Andre Belousov, President of Russia's economic adviser, the poverty population has increased by nearly 5 million since the economic crisis in Russia, and the total has exceeded 19 million. Among them, the Russians who earn less than the minimum standard of living have reached about 13% of the total population - compared with 10% before the crisis.

    How to give more people to get out of the economic crisis in the sense ", at the same time, we improve the living standards of ordinary people, the Russian government is crucial.

    In May 2012, Putin again served as president, has proposed 200 tasks, covering economic growth, population growth, education and health, improve the quality of life and the completion of the modernization of social obligation, realize the requirements before 2020. According to Russian scholars, the average annual growth rate of GDP should be no less than 5% - 6% in order to achieve these goals.

    Although the economic and trade relations between China and Russia have developed rapidly, the fundamental path to improve the bilateral trade structure still lies in the transformation of Russia's economic structure.

    According to statistics released by the General Administration of Customs of China, the total value of imports and exports between China and Russia was $1 in 2017 -, an increase of 25.7% compared with the previous year, according to statistics released by the General Administration of Customs of China. The total value of imports and exports of China and Russia was 39 billion 778 million US dollars. Among them, China's exports to Russia amounted to $19 billion 441 million, an increase of 22.2%; China's imports from Russia amounted to $20 billion 336 million, an increase of 29.3%.

    It should be said that in Russia out of recession in the process of the implementation of the "Look East" strategy, is the value of Chinese and comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation, and the neighboring countries with strong economic strength and market potential. The deepening of Sino Russian economic and trade cooperation, especially the deep cooperation in energy and agriculture, has played an important role in the economic recovery of russia.

    Following the May 2014 and Chinese signed a total value of $400 billion, the cumulative period of natural gas large single contract 30 years later, in September 2015, Russia held the first East Economic Forum in Vladivostok, signed a $20 billion cooperation projects with foreign enterprises, including China. Subsequently, Russia established an advanced development zone in the Far East and Siberia, providing policy concessions for foreign investors and speeding up the docking and cooperation with northeast china.

    In the process of Russia's economy out of recession and toward recovery, Sino Russian economic and trade cooperation with a strong economic complementarity has also ushered in a new situation.


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